armenia-2020-synthetic-control
EconArmeniaSyntheticProject/armenia-2020-synthetic-control
Economics + data-science project: synthetic control study of Armenia's 2020 compound shock (2nd Nagorno-Karabakh war + COVID-19) on real GDP per capita. Recreates and extends an earlier 2021 exploration.
synthetic-controleconomicscausal-inferenceworld-bank-datagdp-analysisreplication-studystatistical-modelingtime-series
Summary
A synthetic control study analyzing the impact of Armenia's 2020 compound shock (Second Nagorno-Karabakh war + COVID-19) on real GDP per capita. The project replicates and extends a 2021 analysis using World Bank data, a 30-country donor pool, and robust statistical inference methods including placebo tests and sensitivity analyses.