armenia-2020-synthetic-control-paper
EconArmeniaSyntheticProject/armenia-2020-synthetic-control-paper
Synthetic control study of Armenia's 2020 compound shock (Second Nagorno-Karabakh war + COVID-19) on real GDP per capita. Paper, code, data, results, and dashboards.
synthetic-controleconomicscausal-inferencereproducible-researchworld-bank-datagdp-analysispolicy-evaluation
Summary
A synthetic control study analyzing the impact of Armenia's 2020 compound shock (Second Nagorno-Karabakh war + COVID-19) on real GDP per capita. The repository contains a complete research paper, reproducible Python code for data fetching and analysis, datasets, results, and dashboards, with extensions contributed by students. The analysis finds no significant negative economic impact from the 2020 shocks, but identifies a post-2022 positive deviation linked to Russian relocation inflows.